Know your edge before you commit.
Upload your prediction market screenshot. Get your bet graded, your true odds estimated, and a clear verdict — buy, hold, or fade — in seconds. Stop guessing. Start trading with an actual edge.
Analyze. Predict. Fade.
Not ready to commit? Paper trade our daily AI picks for free →
Polymarket · Politics
Will the Fed cut rates before Q4?
Works with every prediction market & sports betting platform
The Problem
Right now, you're betting blind.
Prediction markets are designed to take money from traders who guess on vibes. The market knows something you don't — and it's priced in.
No real edge
If you're picking markets based on headlines and gut feel, you're not a trader — you're the liquidity. The market is pricing off aggregated information you don't have.
Guessing ≠ winning
Most Kalshi and Polymarket traders win 45–50% of the time — below break-even after fees. Random coin flips would perform the same. You need an actual system.
The market exploits you
Markets are efficient machines that extract money from uninformed participants. Every trade you make without a probability advantage is a slow leak on your bankroll.
AI probability analysis on every bet
Upload your screenshot and get your true probability instantly. See whether your bet has real edge — or whether the market is pricing you out before you even click buy.
Expert AI coach that thinks like a sharp
Your personal sharp bettor coach, available anytime. Ask it about your position, your sizing, your strategy. It thinks in Kelly, speaks in edge, and tells you exactly what your numbers mean.
The Strategy
What does it mean to fade a bet?
Fading is one of the most powerful edges in prediction markets — and most traders ignore it.
Spot the Overpriced Bet
Markets overprice popular narratives. When the crowd piles into a YES at 80¢ but the real probability is 60%, that's a fade opportunity worth taking.
Find the Edge
Upload your screenshot and see your true probability versus what the market is pricing. A big gap means you have an edge. A small gap means you're paying fair value — or worse.
Profit When They're Wrong
You don't need to predict the future — you just need to be right more than the market. Consistently fading mispriced bets is how sharp traders build long-term profit.
The FadeMe edge in plain English
If a bet is priced at 75¢ (implied 75% chance) but our AI estimates the true probability at 55%, the market is mispriced by 20%. That's a FADE — bet NO, and the market is paying you 25¢ on a coin that should flip tails 45% of the time.
Verdict
FADE
20% edge against market
How It Works
Three steps. Ten seconds.
No complex setup. No manual data entry. Just drop a screenshot and get a sharp, honest analysis.
Screenshot
Take a screenshot of any prediction market bet on Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, or any other platform.
Analyze
Your bet gets read, your true probability calculated, and your grade delivered against the market price — in seconds.
Win
Get a clear BUY, HOLD, or FADE recommendation with full reasoning so you always know your edge.
The Grade System
Every bet gets a grade. Here's your playbook.
Upload a screenshot and your bet comes back graded S through F — with a clear move attached. No ambiguity, no maybe. Just a verdict.
Elite edge. Massive gap between market price and true odds. Max conviction — take the position.
Strong edge. Clear mispricing with solid upside. Worth sizing up on.
Decent edge. Some upside, manageable risk. Go lighter than usual.
Marginal edge. Barely justifies the risk. Wait for a better setup.
Weak edge. Risk doesn't justify sizing. Better plays are out there.
Market has you beat. Flip to the other side or walk away entirely.
Grades are based on the gap between market-implied probability and our AI's true estimate. Bigger gap = higher grade = clearer edge.
Disclosure: Even an S-grade pick can lose. A higher grade means better edge, not a guarantee — you can still lose 100% of your money on any prediction market position. Never bet more than you can afford to lose entirely.
Daily AI Picks
We do the scanning. You make the plays.
Every morning, your AI scans hundreds of markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt, cross-references live news, and surfaces only the highest-conviction plays. Skip the guesswork — your daily edge, delivered to your inbox before the market moves.
200+ markets scanned daily
Your AI reads every open contract across Kalshi, Polymarket, and PredictIt — prices, volume, liquidity, and expiry — so you don't have to.
Live news cross-referenced
Breaking news, economic data, and event context are pulled in real-time so every pick reflects what's actually happening right now.
Only S and A grades make the cut
Your picks are filtered hard. If there's no genuine edge, it doesn't make your list. You get 3–6 high-conviction plays — not a pile of maybes.
Will the Fed cut rates before Q4?
Politics · Expires Sep 30
Market underpricing rate cut probability given recent inflation data and Fed signaling. Strong edge with 60-day runway to resolution.
Parlay Analyzer
Build smarter combos. Cut the weak legs.
Drop a screenshot of any multi-leg parlay or combo bet. We grade every leg individually, calculate the true combined probability, and tell you exactly which legs are dragging you down — so you can trim the parlay and keep the edge.
Every leg graded individually
Each bet in your combo gets its own true probability estimate versus the market's implied odds. Green means value, red means the book has you beat on that leg.
True combined probability vs payout
We multiply your true probabilities across all legs and compare it to the payout's implied break-even probability. Most parlays are F-grade — compounded vig kills the EV.
KEEP or REMOVE, for each leg
The analyzer flags which legs are weak links and shows you the trimmed parlay — the version with real edge that's still worth placing.
Miami to win (vs Leon)
Implied 47% · True 44%
Orlando to win (vs San Luis)
Implied 62% · True 68%
Toluca to win (vs Dallas)
Implied 71% · True 74%
Seattle to win (vs Guadalajara)
Implied 30% · True 26%
LA FC to win (vs Queretaro)
Implied 77% · True 80%
Payout Implied
6.25%
True Combined
4.61%
Parlay Edge
-1.64%
Remove Miami & Seattle — trimmed 3-leg parlay raises true combined probability to 40.3%.
See what our AI is calling this week.
Drop your email and we'll send you our top AI picks right now — grades, positions, and reasoning included.
Then come back and see how they actually performed. We keep the full record public. No cherry-picking, no hiding the losses.
We'll also add you to our weekly picks list. Unsubscribe any time — no hard feelings if you'd rather keep betting on vibes.
Features
Every edge matters.
Get institutional-grade analysis on every one of your bets, automatically.
AI Bet Grading
Every bet you upload gets an S–F grade based on the gap between the market's implied probability and your true estimated edge.
True Odds Estimation
Your underlying event gets analyzed — historical patterns, market sentiment, live news — so you know what the real probability should be.
Smart Recommendations
BUY when you have edge, HOLD when it's fair value, FADE when the market is pricing you out. Simple and actionable.
Risk Analysis
Get the bull case, bear case, and the three key risks you need to watch before placing your bet.
Parlay Analyzer
Upload any multi-leg combo and get per-leg KEEP/REMOVE grades, true combined probability vs payout, and a trimmed parlay that still has edge.
Profit Calculator
What's smarter research worth?
Even a small improvement in how often you're right adds up fast. Drag the sliders to see your upside.
Extra profit from smarter picks
+$50
per month
+$600
per year
Getting 10% more picks right on 20 trades adds 2.0 wins/mo — that's real money left on the table without research.
Start nowFor illustrative purposes only. Results vary based on market conditions and individual skill.
What Users Say
Real results.
“Caught a 12% mispricing on a Fed rate cut contract that I would have totally missed. This tool pays for itself.”
Marcus T.
@marcust_kalshi
“I analyze 30+ bets a month. FadeMe cut my research time in half and my hit rate went up. The risk breakdowns are gold.”
Jordan K.
Polymarket trader
“Refreshingly honest — it actually tells you when a bet is NOT worth taking. Most tools just hype everything up.”
Priya M.
@priya_predicts
Zero Risk to You
Your edge. Your decisions. Your accounts — always.
Your money stays yours
FadeMe is a pure analysis tool. Your funds, your bets, your accounts — we have zero ability to touch any of it.
No account access needed
No API keys. No logins to Kalshi, Polymarket, or any other platform. Just upload a screenshot — that's all we ever see.
Screenshots aren't stored
Your screenshots are never stored. They go to our AI provider for analysis only and are discarded immediately — your privacy is protected end to end.
Quick Estimate
What's a winning pick worth?
Adjust your average profit per winning bet and how many picks you make each month.
Estimated monthly profit
$500
$6,000 / year
Results depend on bet selection, market conditions, and individual skill.
FAQ
Questions? We've got answers.
Everything you need to know before your first bet analysis.
Still have questions?
Your first week is just $1. Try it risk-free.
Ready to find your edge?
Upload your first screenshot free. Your edge is one analysis away.
Analyze Your Bet NowFadeMe sharpens your decisions — it doesn't make them for you. You can lose 100% of your money in prediction markets. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.